I’m a bit late to the party on this but here’s some commentary about the child obesity rates levelling off:
From US News:
There’s some not-bad news about childhood obesity today: A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association finds that the prevalence of kids with a high body mass index, or BMI, showed no significant increase between 1999 and 2006.
If that trend is borne out in data for subsequent years, it’s at least a sign that the upward creep of child BMI may have leveled off. But it’s by no means great news, since it still means more than 16 percent of kids between 2 and 19 had BMIs at or above the 95th percentile, while about 32 percent were at or above the 85th percentile. I know—that looked weird to me, too: How can 16 percent of kids be above the 95th percentile? (It’s like Lake Wobegon, where all the children are above average!) But those percentile charts are based on decades-old data on kids’ weight; kids have gotten heavier in proportion to height, so now 16 percent of them are at or above the level that used to be the cutoff for the top 5 percent.
From Extension Daily on the reasons for the levelling off:
Still, [Dr Robert] Keith says that while some behavioral changes surely have occurred, the possible peak in childhood obesity may actually have nothing to do with lifestyle changes. Future studies even may prove that the peaking effect had little to do with educational outreach and everything to do with a combination of several environmental and human genetic factors.
In fact, Keith says it is possible two pervasive environmental factors — a chronic lack of exercise coupled with a wide access to calories — have contributed to spiking obesity rates among children most genetically susceptible to these factors.
In effect, what is widely viewed as a peak is actually a genetic saturation point.
“It is possible that we’ve reached our saturation point in terms of the levels of physical inactivity and the amount of calories current available to us versus the number of children who are becoming obese,” Keith says.
Simply put, he says, all of the people most susceptible to obesity based on current levels of physical activity and levels of available calories have become obese.
And this theory, if it turns out to be true, presents a sobering reality to Keith and other health and nutrition specialist.
From Time, interviewing Cynthia Ogden (lead researcher of the study):
Ogden wouldn’t speculate as to why national childhood overweight trends appear to have stalled. It could be that kids have hit the fat ceiling — they’ve gotten as heavy as they’re ever going to get. Or, perhaps the most obvious answer is the nationwide effort to combat obesity by getting kids — and parents — to eat better and exercise more. From Arkansas, where state officials have begun sending annual childhood health reports to parents, to Massachusetts, where the town of Somerville launched a community-wide intervention to improve the diet and fitness of children, state and local governments have recognized and begun addressing childhood obesity.
One thing that needs to be noted is that Body Mass Index is used , which does have some flaws (which I have written about earlier).